Before you put a crew in a new city or spend on a new province, check whether the boiler homes are there. Demand mapping uses public survey data, provincial program information and your own job records to show where boiler work concentrates and which fuel it runs on. The output is a written recommendation, not a pile of spreadsheets.
What the public data says
Statistics Canada's primary heating systems table reports the share of households heating with a hot-water or steam boiler. In the 2023 reference year, the national figure was about 7%. Provincial shares ranged from about 4% in Quebec to roughly 16% in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island.
The large-city figures are just as telling. Halifax stood at about 20% of households, Vancouver around 12%, Saskatoon about 12%, and Toronto roughly 8%. A boiler specialist in Halifax is working with a much denser base of potential customers than one in Montréal, where the share was about 6%.
Fuel changes the strategy
The same table breaks boiler homes down by energy source where the sample allows. In 2023, natural gas fuelled about 64% of boiler homes in British Columbia and roughly half in Alberta and Saskatchewan. In Quebec, about 53% of boiler homes used electric boilers. In Nova Scotia, PEI and Newfoundland and Labrador, oil fuelled most of the boiler homes reported.
That shapes everything downstream:
- Gas-boiler regions favour condensing replacement, combi conversions and annual combustion servicing.
- Electric-boiler regions have different service needs and a different relationship with heat-pump programs.
- Oil-boiler regions face conversion programs that can shrink the boiler base over time, but also create demand for hybrid systems and decommissioning.
Programs that move demand
Provincial and utility programs can support boiler demand or pull against it. For example, as of October 2026, SaskEnergy's replacement rebate lists $750 for an eligible high-efficiency boiler and $800 for an eligible combi boiler, with installation by a TSASK-licensed gas contractor and an application within 120 days. In other provinces, the main programs fund heat pumps. Each province page lists what we verified, with dates; always confirm current terms with the administrator.
What's included
- a summary of boiler share and fuel mix for your current and target regions
- the provincial and utility programs relevant to boiler customers, with sources
- an analysis of your own last two years of jobs by postal code area or town
- drive-time and service-area notes for the territory you're considering
- a ranked recommendation: where to expand first, where to hold, and where not to bother
The written proposal confirms scope and price before work starts.
Timeline and how results are measured
A mapping engagement usually takes two to four weeks, depending on how clean your job data is. Afterwards, we judge it against what happens in the new area:
- calls and quote requests from the new territory per month
- close rate and average ticket there compared with your home base
- travel time per job in the new area
- time until the new area covers the cost of the crew or marketing assigned to it
Mistakes to avoid
- Expanding by population alone. A big city with a low boiler share can be thinner territory than a smaller one with older housing.
- Ignoring fuel. An oil-boiler market and a gas-boiler market need different service offers.
- Treating programs as permanent. Rebates change and close; never build a territory plan around one.
- Skipping your own data. The towns where your customers already live are stronger evidence than any survey.
Mapping often comes before positioning in a new market and before a technician capacity plan for a second crew. The guides cover related planning in more depth.
An example of how mapping changes a decision
Picture a Vancouver-area boiler company weighing a second crew in either the Fraser Valley or the Okanagan. Population alone might favour one; the boiler share, the gas share, drive time from the shop and the company's existing customers in each area might favour the other. Mapping puts those factors side by side so the decision rests on evidence. The British Columbia page shows the regional context for that kind of choice.
Frequently asked questions
Where does the demand data come from?
The main public source is Statistics Canada's Households and the Environment Survey table on primary heating systems, which reports the share of households heating with a hot-water or steam boiler by province and large city. We combine it with your own jobs and service records.
Is the public data precise enough to plan with?
It's a survey, so treat the shares as approximate, and some values are suppressed for smaller provinces. It's good for comparing regions and spotting outliers, not for counting households street by street.
Can you map a city rather than a whole province?
Partly. The table reports boiler shares for several large census metropolitan areas, such as Vancouver, Toronto, Halifax and Saskatoon. Below that level, your own job history and local housing knowledge do most of the work.
Do provincial programs change the picture?
Yes. A utility rebate for high-efficiency boilers supports replacement demand, while heat-pump conversion programs can pull customers away from boilers. We note the programs in force as of the time of the work and tell you to confirm with each administrator.